Geographical Analysis of Pancreatic Cancer Mortality in Shimane Prefecture, Japan, 1985 to 2006

In this study, we investigated the mortality and localized clusters of deaths from pancreatic cancer in Shimane Prefecture, Japan from 1985 to 2006. The standardized mortality ratio of pancreatic cancer by year in Shimane Prefecture was significantly higher than that of the national population from 1991 to 1997 and from 2000 to 2004 in males, and from 1997 to 2000 in females. The Bayes estimates of standardized mortality ratio of pancreatic cancer by sex and municipality in Shimane Prefecture was high as more than 120 in 5 municipalities in males from 1985 to 1995, and in 4 municipalities in males and 3 municipalities in females from 1996 to 2006. The most likely cluster of pancreatic cancer was located in the central and eastern areas in males between 1985 and 1995（relative risk=1.09, p=0.011）and between 1996 and 2006（relative risk=1.27, p=0.004).