ロジャーズモデルによる山陰二県の人口解析 : 島根県の解析結果

Based on the Rogers' model the multiregional population analysis focused on Shimane and Tottori Prefectures was done by using the 1985 population census and vital statistics data and migration data from the 1984-86 internal migration reports derived from basic registers. Whole Japan, excepting the above two prefectures, was divided into 6 regions with consideration to their relationships with the two prefectures. The results of multiregional life table for Shimane Prefecture, expectation of life by regions of birth and residence, number and probability surviving to a specific age in each region, and number of years expected to be lived in various regions, were reported. Studies on fertility and level of migration and the results of multiregional population projection were also given. Multiregional life table study showed a little different results from single region life table reflecting a leveling effect of migration, e. g. considerable reductions of differences in life expectancy among various regions. Of survivors of cohort born in Shimane Prefecture to the age of 20, only 38 % and 39 % were expected to stay in Shimane for male and female respectively and more than 60 % to migrate out to the other regions. Analysis of migration level showed the residents of Shimane prefecture at their age 20 were expected to live 37 % for male and 45 % for female of their remaining life in Shimane. The most popular destinations of migration were Southern Kanto for male and Keihanshin for female. As the results of multiregional population projection, population of Shimane Prefecture was expected to decrease considerably year by year and was estimated at 606 thousands in the year 2025. The proportion of age 65 and over was expected to exceed 20% in 1995 and 28% before 2020.