明治後期～昭和初期における島根県市郡別の出生力と死亡力の算出

本稿は主に戦前期の「島根県統計書」を活用し，1905～1935年における島根県市郡別の出生力・死亡力の算出を試みた。出生力および死亡力算出に必要な男女年齢別人口と動態数は，同時期の国勢調査や人口動態統計等を用いて補正を行った。その結果，郡別の出生力・死亡力の地域較差は期間を通じて比較的安定していたことや，出生力・死亡力とも松江市においていち早く低下が観察され，人口転換が都市部から農村部へと波及していった可能性が裏付けられるなど，当時の地域別人口動態に関していくつかの重要な知見を得た。同時に本稿は，必ずしも正確とはいえない統計の補正手法の一例を提示したことによって，他地域における歴史的な人口動態分析から全国的な人口転換のメカニズム解明へと至るひとつの道筋を付けた。

In this paper, the fertility and mortality of a city and counties of Shimane prefecture from 1905 to 1935 are calculated by utilizing the “Statistics of Shimane prefecture (Shimane-ken Toukeisho)” before the Second World War. Data from “Shimane-ken Toukeisho” on sex- and agespecific population and the number of births and deaths by a city and countries, which are required for the calculation of fertility and mortality, are corrected by using census and vital statistics published around the same time. The analysis revealed some important findings on the regional population dynamics at that time. Although the level of fertility and mortality by county were relatively stable throughout the period, they declined sooner in Matsue city, supporting the hypothesis that population transition gradually spread from the urban to rural areas. Additionally, this paper presents an example of a method for correcting inaccurate data. This will lead to an investigation of a nation-wide population transition mechanism through the historical analysis of population dynamics in other areas.